Fertilizer Update – 26/5/2022
This morning, CF launched a Nitram price for “immediate” delivery; the price is in excess of £750/tonne. As you would expect, those with imported AN to sell have also moved up to levels around £730/tonne.
I believe in the near future we will see CF return with an offer for deliveries towards the end of 2022; that in itself would be a strong signal to the UK market of forward availability. The situation remains unchanged with CF, production is only from Billingham and it is estimated that production capacity is around 650,000 tonnes of N. If you consider the UK market typically consumes close to 2 million tonnes of N , split across various sources, the loss of production from Ince will need to be covered from other sources. But, right now the Lithuanians can command better prices elsewhere and the Polish have logistics issues. The port of Odessa, in Ukraine is inaccessible meaning that grain from Ukraine is being put onto the railways to bring through Poland and out of the ports in Gdansk and Gydnia. The knock on effect of this is that the polish fertilizer (Pulan) is also railed to these ports and, as things are, fertilizer simply is unable to move. Of course, offtake agreements are in place to come to the UK but, certainly in the coming months, prices are going to be firm. That said, for those who buy urea, or are able to look at urea as a first dressing option, the pricing, in comparison to AN, is superb and, it’s quite possible that prices are bumping along the bottom now but, as we know, any event could turn that around.
Several months ago I indicated that MOP prices were firming, this has proven correct and there is concern it will reach much higher levels yet. In 2021 Russia was responsible for exporting 20% of the world volume, combine this with the loss of potash from Belarus, then approx. 30% of the global supply is under sanctions. That said, reduced global demand, as buyers are priced out of the market, is helping to balance supply & demand. Increased Canadian production into the global market will also be a stabilising factor; time will tell on how this influences the UK.
To give you an indication of current June availability, I have listed those grades which may interest you. As always, treat as subject to availability. Regrettably, due to recent confidentiality breach, I am unable to include prices but please email to: [email protected] or call the office if you wish to discuss.
|Nitram||34.5% N||May spot||monthly|
|Gran 33.5% AN||33.5%N||June||+£15 Dec pay|
|Gran Urea||46%N||Jul -Dec||month after del|
|Coated Urea||46% + Limus||Oct-Nov||month after del|
|Piamon||33N : 30303||Sep-Nov||month after del|
|Comp 27N:12So3||27N:12So3||Jul-Aug||+£15 Dec pay|
|Comp 26N:37So3||or 26N:35So3||Jul-Aug||+£15 Dec pay|
|Comp 27N:10So3||27N:10So3||June||+£15 Dec pay|
|Polysulphate||14K : 48So3 : 6MgO :17 CaO||June||+£15 Dec pay|
|Potash Plus||37K : 23So3 : 2.8MgO : 8CaO||June||+£15 Dec pay|
|Compound 12:15:21 + 20So3||12:15:21 + 20So3||June||+£15 Dec pay|
|Yara Actyva S||16:15:15+6.5So3||June||discuss|
|Yara Stockbooster||25:5:5 +5So3||June||discuss|
|Yara NK Sulphur||24:0:13 +5So3||June||discuss|
|Yara New 52||20.6 : 8.2 : 11.6 : 6 So3||June||discuss|
|Blends of all types||June|
We will keep you updated. Could I ask that you check you have received your order confirmations for tonnage placed so far. In the event of anything being incorrect or missing please contact us asap.
Fertilizer Sector Head