Fertilizer Update – 07-03-2022

Dear Members

This morning the CEO of Yara International told the BBC that we are entering “catastrophe upon catastrophe”, a link to the interview is here: Ukraine war ‘catastrophic for global food’ – BBC News.

The loss of Russian supplies to the global fertilizer market; and ammonia is a significant part of this; is predicted to create huge disruption to availability and, undoubtedly, will lead to greater price increases where production continues.

As I write this,  I am gravely concerned about supply to UK farmers; whether UK production will continue, and how long the stocks of imported AN & Urea will last.  Be in no doubt, there is no fleet of vessels heading our way full of AN.

TSP, MOP can be sourced from other parts of the globe but this will come at a price.

Today, all suppliers are withdrawn from all fertilizer markets; we hope to see some prices through today but you should be prepared for unprecedented costs.

We are reviewing all outstanding orders; it is exceptionally difficult to get any information reference balances etc; if you have small outstanding balances from orders delivered you need to plan for these, potentially, not being supplied.  While I appreciate this may prove inconvenient, it is simply impossible to deliver what does not physically exist.  No suppliers have yet said this to be the case; experience tells me though that we should not ignore this as a possible action.

I am being asked by members what new season prices might be; right now I am not entirely sure it will be like anything any of us have even witnessed.

Thank you for your continued support.

Heather Claridge
Fertilizer Sector Head